Prevention before cure

“We’re expecting an earthquake similar to the one which occurred in 1755.” The words are from Engº Carlos Palhares of Lisbon’s Municipal Service for Civil Protection – and one of the seminar’s guest speakers. He’s not a clairvoyant, but a look back in time will show that the Great Earthquake of the 18th century brought with it a tsunami that devastated a large part of the Algarve coast, as well as the city of Lisbon. It’s also known that the tidal wave hit the south coast first – reaching the Portuguese capital about half an hour later. Nearly 234 years later, the Algarve continues to be the most vulnerable region of the country – with the majority of the population concentrated along the coast. Paradoxically, today’s scientific data maintains that the majority of earthquakes that affect the country take place southwest of Cape St. Vincent.

The ability to predict an earth tremor is still beyond the scientific domain – however, it is possible to alert people to the existence of giant waves at sea: the devastating phenomenon known as tsunami. A practical example of this functions in Japan today – the country that created a tsunami alert system, along with shelters for the country’s inhabitants. “Usually, more people die as a result of a huge wave” than as a result of the earthquake that produces it, Carlos Palhares explained – recalling the terrible tsunami in Indonesia on Boxing Day 2004 that killed around 300,000 people, as it gouged a great swathe of destruction.

Thus, Palhares suggests that local authorities consider setting up a network of shelters, at strategic locations – or, at the very least, a public alert system to give early warning of any tsunami approaching the Algarve coast.

If the idea sounds absurd, bear in mind the preliminary results of a study into the Risk of Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Algarve (ERSA), presented last February at a conference at the University of the Algarve. An earthquake of the same magnitude as that registered in 1755 (8.5 on the Richter Scale) would cause around 3,000 deaths and render 27,000 homeless. “The Algarve Barlavento is the area with the greatest risk of earthquakes. And in the Sotavento, a tsunami would flood the zones of Quarteira, Faro and the Rio Guadiana”, Palhares continued.

But besides any talk of infrastructure, it’s vital to instill in people the attitude that prevention CAN limit the consequences of a possible disaster. According to Carlos Palhares, in a crisis situation, 90 per cent of people have only themselves, their family and the people geographically nearest to them (neighbours/ work colleagues etc.) to count on. In a catastrophe of large-scale proportions, it’s the community that suffers the first shock and has to take adequate survival measures.

Often telecommunication systems become useless, as they block due to the high level of traffic. “We’re too reliant on technology – and it can fail”, Palhares warns. But he explained that simple steps could prevent extra collateral damage. Just simple steps. For example, always having at hand objects like a small fire extinguisher to put out small fires quickly; keeping a stock of bottled drinking water; a torch and batteries; a first aid kit. In life-threatening situations, these few ‘crisis essentials’ can save lives.

Rute Carvalho, also from the capital’s service for Civil Protection, spoke of the «Security Plan for Schools». She stressed the need to prepare emergency plans which would work efficiently – and to turn theory into practice. “The various security forces have to be ready for action. For this to be possible, there has to be simulation training – designed to test responses and make them routine for all the various entities. The capacity for response depends on everyone being prepared”, she said.

Only last weekend, Civil Protection embarked on a large-scale simulation of an earthquake in the districts of Lisbon, Setúbal and Santarém. The exercise involved more than 60 different entities (both public and private) and 2.600 operatives. Among the various possible crisis scenarios, response to the collapse of buildings, landslides, gas mains explosions and urban and industrial fires were simulated.

And the Army used the occasion to try out their new Integrated System for Emergency and Security Networks in Portugal (SIRESP). The new digital radio network should be operational throughout the country by 2010.

Meanwhile, a Special Algarve Emergency Earthquake Plan is being drawn up and should be tested by the last quarter of 2009, or the first quarter of 2010. One day it may have to be used for real.